Dili, 19 September 2017, the presentation of result consumer index price (56 editions, CPI series 2) at General Directorate of Statistics, Kaikoli-Street. The ceremony was leading by general director of statistics, Mr. Elias dos Santos Ferreira. In that occasion was also attending by Ministry of Finance, World Bank, Banco Central de Timor-Leste, MCI and Student of University UNTL, UNPAZ, and UNDIL.
Presentation Consumer Price Index series 2, by Sra.Rosantina, inflation in Timor-Leste measured used Consumer Price Index.
Methodologies Consumer Price Index: Rack shopping (product and work) and weigh at Consumer Price Index (based on Household Income and expenditure survey 2011). Food and drink (non-Alcohol) 64%, Alcohol and Cigarette 5%, clothe and shoes 6%, House 6% , goods equipment and maintains routines in household 4%, Health 1%, Transportation 7%, Communication 2%, recreation and culture 3%, Education 2% .
The key number of important in August 2017, Mensal July 2017- August 2017, all group -0.4%, All group not include house -0.4%, tradable CPI -0.4%, Non-tradable CPI -0.2%, Food and drink (non-Alcohol) -0.5%, Alcohol and Cigarette -0.2%, clothe and shoes 0.3%, House -0.1%, goods equipment and maintains routines in household 0.5%, Health 0.0%, Transportation 0.0%, Communication -0.4%, recreation and culture -0.2%, Education 0.0%. Annual Augusts 2016 – August 2017, all group 0.7%, All group not include house 0.9%, tradable CPI 0.9%, Non-tradable CPI 0.3%, Food and drink (non-Alcohol) 1.0%, Alcohol and Cigarette 0.4%, clothe and shoes 0.4%, House -0.2%, goods equipment and maintains routines in household 0.2%, Health 0.0%, Transportation 0.7%, Communication -2.2%, recreation and culture -1.1%, Education 0.0%.
Index for all group in August 2017, the tendency index price consumer has a small fluctuations just like IPC in Dili, Index Price Consumer Ex-Dili changed following the tendency in Dili. IPC Timor-Leste has tendency to follow the international market prices, during the period of the end of the year.
The annual inflation Timor-Leste in August 2017 (+0.7%), inflation measure from consumer prices showed a positive tendency in this trimestral. The graph showed that inflation is very affect conferring on food and drink (non-Alcohol). Core of CPI as all groups, the lack of food and transport, there is no change in the end trimestral.
The negative key of the first contributors for all group, group of foods and drink (non-alcohol) (-0.5%). The group of foods and drink (non-alcohol) getting the decline in this month, and get affecting from sub-group vegetable (-0.2%), bread and flour (-0.6%) and rice (-0.1%). Sub-group milk, cheese and egg (+3.6%) so it’s like positive change in group of foods and drink (non-alcohol).
The first negative of contributors for group of foods and drink (non-alcohol), sub-group vegetables (-2.0%). Sub group vegetables getting the decline from price of vegetables on market in Dili like onion and tomatoes. The price of vegetables decline because affect from supply costs.
The second negative of contributors for group of foods and drink (non-alcohol), sub-group bread and flour (-0.6%). This sub-group getting the decline because affect from flour on market in Dili. The price decline because getting impact from imported costs.
The third negative of contributors for group of foods and drink (non-alcohol), sub-group Rice (-0.1%). The price of rice decline because affect from price of local rice in Ex-Dili. Get the decline because supplying local rice increased in production time of local rice.
The first positive of contributors for group of foods and drink (non-alcohol), sub-group milk, cheese, and egg (+3.6%). This sub-group getting the positive change in group of foods and drink (non-alcohol) get affect the price of imported egg. The price of eggs increases rapidly because getting a decline at the last trimestral, the price increases because imported costs.
The first positive of contributors for all groups, group of equipment goods equipment and maintains routines in household (+0.5%). Group goods equipment and maintains routines in household getting positive great changed for all groups of index price consumer. This changed getting impact from sub-group goods and household routine work (+0.6%).
The inflation tradable and non-tradable of CPI, in 2016, level inflation (negative), get a great affecting from contribution tradable. In August 2017, contribution tradable (+0.9%) and non-tradable (+0.3%), It said that the level of inflation in Timor-Leste (+0.7%), great affecting from tradable product.
The Graphic factor outdoor that possible affecting inflation in Timor-Leste. That graphic showed the price international foods no changed signification in this month on June 2017 (lag affect). The price of sugar increases rapidly, this give affect for group foods. The price of international oil getting rapidly decline in 2015 and now increases, that give pressured for group transportation. In the last, NEER (value of dollar) no have changed signification in this period.