The Presentation of Timor-Leste National Accounts, Statistics Criminal 2015 and CPI series 2
Dili, 16 May 2017, presentation of CPI, Timor Leste National Accounts and Statistics Criminal at office General Directorate of Statistics – Caikoli, Dili. Participant of the ceremony consists of Ministry of Public, Central Bank, Lao-Hamutuk NGO, Luta-Hamutuk NGO, student of University of UNITAL,
Presentation Timor-Leste National Accounts, by Sra. Alzira, Introduction to the system of national accounts (SNA). The system of national accounts (SNA) is the internationally-agreed standard set of recommendation on how to compile measure of economic activity. Present situation of TL-NA, the headline GDP for TL-NA is the GDP expenditure. Despite the fact that production approach has basic sources as good as the expenditure approach in nominal terms, the expenditure approach has been chosen over the production approach because it makes use of higher quality price data sets in order to obtain results in constant terms.
Timor-Leste National Accounts Publication:
TL NA 2000-2003 (US University)
TL-NA 2004-2010 (base year 2010=100)
TL-NA 2010-2015 (base year 2015=100)
Method of TL National Accounts
Collection and Aggregation of basic sources (BS)
Pre compilation Process (PCP)
Compilation Process (CP)
Increase Non-Oil GDP (E) 2015/2014 Consumption and Investment:
• Private expenditure increase 3.9%, public expenditures 3.2%
• Investment growth is driven by the private sector (+3.3%) while public investment goes down (-3.6%)
• There is a big increase in households investment (+13.4%), private corporations investment mainly stays the same
• Private consumption increases 4.0% public consumption increases 7.1%.
Increase in Non-Oil GDP (E) 2015/2014 External Trade:
• Big Increase in non-oil export of goods (+133.4%), mainly driven by export of coffee
• Imports of goods grow only by 11,6%. The main contribution in imports growth are machineries and electrical equipment, food stuffs and mineral products
• On the whole both exports and imports decline, exports (-5.3%), imports (-4.8%)mainly because of services
2015: Increasing Industrial Value added:
• On the production side we can observe that the formal economy leads the growth
• Total BAS Value added (construction. Sholesale, retail,..)
• Total non-Bas value added grew 2.1%: agriculture, imputed rents and informal activities almost stay unchanged (+0.1%). However, in agriculture there is a big decline in maize (-37%) and rice (-32%)
Presentation Criminals Statistics Timor-Leste 2015, by Sra. Marcia, publication criminals of statistics 2015 shows general information about the volume and progress of criminal that occurred in Timor-Leste during the period 2015. This information is divided into two parts, general information regarding criminal statistics victims and suspects to criminal events. These publications will be of a publication series and publication of annual. Objective of the presentation is to attend necessity for used data of statistics criminal with the series and continuation. To obtain figure macro about the situation and condition of the stability of current society and progress during 2015 and to get the complete figure about the characteristics of criminal incidents that occurred in Timor-Leste.
The number of criminal incidents that relate in PNTL showed that criminal cases that occurred in Timor-Leste totaled 3.207 criminal cases. More in Dili curing the period 2015 with total 1.358 criminal cases. In 2015 criminal rate in Timor-Leste total 271, this indicates in 2015 shows that every 100.000 population in Timor-Leste occur 271 victims for crime. More on the cases decided in tribunals Dili, Baucau, Suai and Oecusse process in 2015 showed that criminal cases is more than civil cases. The number of criminal incidents to the victims following the group age and a municipality in 2015. Shown that number higher, namely victim’s group age 20-29 years old.
Presentation Consumer Price Index series 2, by Sra.Veronica, inflation in Timor-Leste measured used Consumer Price Index.
Methodologies Consumer Price Index: Rack shopping (product and work) and weigh at Consumer Price Index (based on HIES 2011). Food and drink (non-Alcohol) 64%, Alcohol and Cigarette 5%, clothe and shoes 6%, House 6% , goods equipment and maintains routines in household 4%, Health 1%, Transportation 7%, Communication 2%, Rekreasaun and culture 3%, Education 2% .
External factors that affect the level inflation in Timor-Leste: price International foods, foods in weight 64% on Consumer Price Index in Timor-Leste. Index foods and drinks 4% during every year in march 2017. Signification will give of pressure for price of foods in Timor-Leste. Price International Oils, index price International Oil get a positive trend during in the last years. NEER of Timor-Leste, Timor-Leste used money (US$ Dollar) and depend on import, index nominal effective Exchange rate (NEER) get a positive trend.
Internal factor that affect the level inflation in Timor-Leste: process distribution, problem in distribution in import product and local in market become an impact to inflation in Timor-Leste. Competition in market, competition market as an instrument of determine price on the market. The time of production and productive, time of production for product local will be determining price on the market.
The negative key of first contributor for all the group. Group of foods and drinks (non-Alcohol) (+0.1) has a positive change the effect conferring of the sub group of milk, cheese and eggs (+2.9%), and non-sub group coffee, tea and cocoa (+2.1%). Sub-group sugar, marmalade and honey, chocolate and all sugar foods (-1.4%) and sub-grup rice (-0,2%) be the change contrary in the group. Group of foods and drinks (non-Alcohol) get a negative trend during 2015 and the first and second trimesters on 2016, and in the last trimesters showed a positive trend.
The positive key of first contributor for group of foods and drinks (non-Alcohol), sub-group milk, cheese and eggs (+2.9%).the sub-group is getting recovery in March 2017, because affect in price of high import eggs after getting the reduce on the month ago (February). In this month the price of eggs goes up high again by reason of a new stock effect conferring in supply.