Timor-Leste’s Youth Population: A Resource for the Future.
The presentation held on 15 November 2017, at REHA conference room of General Directorate of Statistics (DGS). The presentation was leading by General Director of Statistics, Mr. Elias dos Santos Ferreira. And occasion was also attending by UNFPA, USAID, JICA, Ministry of Education, and Ministry of Health.
Presentation about Timor-Leste’s Youth Population: A Resource for the Future, by Mr. Sang-Hyop Lee, from University of Hawaii at Manoa (UHM) & East –West Center (EWC).
Key Issues, How Population change influences economy (demographic dividend), Share of Working Population Increases, Share of dependent population decreases. How the size and share, productivity, and labor force participation of the young people affect the economy (current and future). What public policies can be pursued to influence the outcome.
Population age structure Timor-Leste, 2015-2050 (DGS), Rapid decline in fertility, highest level of fertility in Asia, but declining most rapidly as well. 0-14: 40% (2015) -> 30% (2034) -> 26% (2050), 15-24: 244 thousands (20%) in 2015, peaks at 2029 (301 thousands), 25-59: 32% (2015) 46% (2050), 60+: 7% (2015) -> 12% (2050).
Most significant efforts: National transfer accounts (NTA), Integrating into economy (constructed using population estimates, surveys, administrative records, macroeconomic data). Quantifies how each groups acquires and uses economic resources (comprehensive output). Consistent with UN System of National Accounts (implication on macro-economy).
Conclusion, our economic systems are being tested by rapid changes in population age structure. Stakes are very large: economic growth, generational equity, economic security for children and elderly, and sustainability of support systems. Complex systems are involved: governments, labor markets, families, financial markets, and health care system. Essential that policy be informed by the best possible data linking population and the economy (NTA!).
Policy Implications, the demographic dividend is not automatic, and favorable changes in population age structure do not guarantee rapid economic growth. Strong growth in the support ratio is advantageous only if sufficient employment opportunities are available to absorb new workers into the economy. Currently, Timor-Leste is at risk of missing the demographic dividend because children are not receiving the necessary investments in their health and education. Act now, seize the opportunity early on.
Conclusion by Mr. Jhon Pile, representative of UNFPA Timor-Leste, Timor-Leste has phase of the windows Demographic dividend. If on this occasion no action then there will be no repetition.
The demographic dividend is calculated in terms of a rise in the support ratio, which stems from an expansion of the working-age population combined with a decline of the child population. The support ratio measures the effect on consumption of changes in population age structure while holding constant other factors such as productivity, transfers, and assets. Thus, each percentage point increase in support ratio allows a percentage point increase in consumption, and vice versa. Thus, the demographic dividend is calculated in terms of a rise or fall in the support ratio.
It is also very important to remember that a demographic dividend is not automatic, and favorable change in population age structure do not guarantee rapid economic growth. Strong growth in the support ratio is advantageous only if sufficient employment opportunities are available to absorb new workers into the economy. Currently, Timor-Leste is at risk of missing a demographic dividend because children are not receiving the necessary investment in their health and education that successful demographic dividend countries have made.